Fresh is best: "Deep green" consumers will stand by the organic food sector. Picture: ILoveButter

First the bad news. As previously reported, growth in the organic food sector has slowed considerably as a result of the economic downturn. This is particularly true in countries regarded as the heavy hitters in the industry – the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Germany.

In the US, for example, sales were up 5.6 percent on the previous year last December, compared with 25.6 percent growth a year earlier. In Germany, growth has slowed from 14 percent in late 2007 to 10 percent late last year. In Britain, the mood was even more sombre, with a drop from 16 percent to a mere 2 percent last November.

But here’s the good news. While the industry has clearly taken a big hit worldwide, it is growing, which is more than can be said of much of the economy. And, apart from Britain, where some pundits predict sales will go into the red, the outlook is for continued growth.

Tom Pirovano, director of industry insights at market research firm The Nielsen Co, told Reuters news agency that he believed most organic consumers were committed to the sector.

“I’m not convinced that we are going to see big declines in organics any time soon,” he said.

Ronnie Cummins, national director of the Organic Consumers Association, agrees that core supporters are simply not prepared to return to a highly-processed diet.

“They are trying to stretch their money but they are not willing to stop buying organic,” he said. “We think in the long run the prognosis is good. The energy crisis and climate change can only really be addressed with organic production.”

Similarly, in Germany and France, the mood is one of optimism. Elisabeth Mercer, the head of Agence Bio, the country’s main organic food group, says demand is still rising.

“In Europe, apart maybe from the UK where the market seems more fragile, I do not believe there will be a drop in consumption this year although growth rates may be less spectacular,” she said.

Even in the UK, Patrick Holden, the director of the Soil Association, the country’s leading organic certifying body, remains upbeat, particularly about local organic produce.

Like Ronnie Cummins, he draws the distinction between “deep green”, or committed, consumers and “light green”, or swinging, consumers. He says the former constitute 80 percent of demand for organic produce and make their choices based on health and environmental reasons not cost. These, he believes, are in for the long haul.

Here's cheers: Shake off the blues and raise your glasses to an organic year. Picture: dotw

It was in retrospect, to paraphrase Mr Dickens, the best of times. Slowly awaking to the scale of society’s environmental and health problems, more of us were taking a closer look at the source of our daily bread.

Who made it? Where was it made? What was it made with? Should I be eating it?

Organic was no longer a “hippy” term, but had become hip. Speciality stores were popping up all over the place. Hell, even the local supermarket had organic ranges. Organic had gone mainstream. 

With double digit growth year on year, the organic food sector – a fiesty David in the land of Goliath – was the envy of the rest of the food market.

And then came the Crash. Or Recession. Or Downturn. Call it what you like, depending on where you live and your circumstances, but there is little doubt 2008 knocked the stuffing out of more than the world’s banks.

As one financial institution after another crumbled around us, citizens previously preoccupied with the size of their bottoms were suddenly more worried about the bottom line. Can I afford to spend the extra to eat better? What if I don’t have a job tomorrow? 

By the end of 2008, many pundits, particularly those with interests vested elsewhere, were tipping the demise of the organic sector. “Ha! We told you it was just a fad, an elitist food concept designed to make the rest of us feel guilty about what we eat.”

So as we embrace the New Year, is that outlook as bleak as some would have you believe?

There is little doubt the industry has been affected. Those who regard organic as a discretionary spend, a “nice” thing to do if you’ve got the extra cash, were quick to cut back. It was certainly scary to see so many resorting to cheap fast “food”, seeing the multinational chain’s profits soar as falls were felt in healthier spheres.

But the doomsayers ignore the fact that for an increasing number of people organic is not an optional extra. The food they feed their families has become a number one priority. They would rather stint on new clothes or replacing the old telly than sacrifice the quality of their food. These people are not fairweather friends.

“The core organic consumers are sticking with their values,” the Organic Trade Association’s Barbara Haumann said recently. “They will shop around, or find other things they can cut.”

With soaring energy costs, the gap between organic and non-organic food prices has closed, as organic methods typically use far less energy in production and packaging.

There are certain organic products that will do better than others. In Australia, for example, business analysts IBISWorld tip a big year for organic dairy and chocolate, and a trend toward “greener” meat choices, such as chicken and pork, and ethical eggs. 

In the US, the American National Restaurant Association has put organic produce, wine and cocktails in its top 20 trends, with locally grown produce at the top of the list.

Outside the all-important consumer, there has also been a groundswell of support for organic among some big international players. 

In April 2008, the results of a six-year global investigation involving heavyweights such as the World Bank, WHO and UNESCO, concluded that the way most of food is still produced is simply not sustainable.

The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTAD), which involved some 400 scientists, government agencies and community groups, urged the world to abandon its reliance on petrochemical fuels and pesticides and embrace more sustainable farming systems. “Modern agricultural practices have exhausted land and water resources, squelched diversity and left poor people vulnerable to high food prices.” 

In October, the United Nations issued a report that showed, contrary to one of the common arguments put forward by organic opponents, organic farming can feed the world. In fact, Organic Agriculture and Food Security in Africa argued that it offered the best solution for food stability in that troubled continent. There were already signs of success – an analysis of 114 projects in 24 African countries found that yields had more than doubled in those that used organic or near-organic methods.

So while the best of times are behind us for the moment, we need not fear the worst. Double digit growth may be a thing of the past but the industry is still growing. This is simply another hurdle in what has already been a long and tortuous path for the organic movement.

Too many of us now know the importance of securing a better way for the future. We know what we eat today affects so much more than our bottom lines (and bottoms). Most importantly, more of us care enough not to abandon this particular food fight.

Here’s to a happy, prosperous – and sustainable – 2009.

The market has enjoyed double digit growth of up to 20 percent a year for several years, but research released in the wake of the country’s economic meltdown shows a significant drop. While it was still on the up, the natural and organic sector only managed 4 percent growth in the four weeks to October 4.

“Organics continue to grow and outpace many categories,” the Nielsen Company reported. “However, recent weeks are showing slower growths, possibly a start of an organics growth plateau.”

Experts believe core consumers who regard organic produce as a necessity not a fad will stick by the industry, but those who were merely dipping their tastebuds into the sector may opt out or, at the least, not buy as many organic items as before.

Laurie Demeritt, the president of the Hartman Group, a research company for the health and wellness industry, told The New York Times that those products marketed to children would hold ground because of parental concern for the wellbeing of their offspring, but those targeted at adults may struggle.

The economy has “crystallized the tradeoffs that consumers are willing to make,” she told the newspaper. “Fair trade is nice, but fair trade may fall off the shopping list where organic milk may not.”

The pain is certainly being felt at organic chain store Whole Foods Market, where stocks have plummeted more than 70 percent.  Dairy producer Organic Valley has also seen sales slow in the past few months.

Other organic suppliers said they believed that although consumers may turn their backs on bigger luxuries, such as cars and holidays, and eat out less they will treat themselves to better quality produce to cook at home.

It’s not something reflected in recent results for the king of the fast food industry. McDonald’s reported an 11 percent rise in profits, up to $1.19 billion, compared with $1.07 billion the previous year, as penny-pinching sent more people in search of cheap meal deals.

According to a report in the International Herald Tribune, store sales increased 7.1 percent globally during the quarter, with an investment strategist saying the company was benefiting from “consumers not spending as much money on discretionary food purchases”.